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What I thought was interesting is that even with 10 days or so left, there are still half of the people who haven't made up their mind. Do you think that these people show up? I know that there are still a lot of people with early ballots, but do they turn them in if they don't have a strong opinion?
One thing that caught my eye was the fact that 43.1% think that the city is on the wrong track, versus only 31.3% of the people who think its on the right track. I'm not an expert, but I can't imagine that bodes well for the who have been on the council. You have to assume that lack of confidence will play well for Scott Smith when people cast their votes.
3 comments:
It is certainly too tough to call on the Mayor's race. However, the poll has some problems other than the obvious one which you pointed out - over 51% didn't answer. That means that over 200 people either had no idea how they will vote or they just plain didn't want to give an answer!
Another problem is that BRC only polled registered voters - not likely voters. That drops the sampling accuracy even more because these folks are not guaranteed to head to the polls on election day.
Finally, BRC "polled on a geographic curve." This means they polled voters of even proportion all over the city. The problem with that is the east side (Districts 5 and 6) historically turns out far more than any other side of Mesa. In fact, the early ballots reflect just that.
The bottom line is that this race is a dead heat and actually may be more of a surprise to BRC readers.
I don't disagree with you. People who show up on election day are certainly not undecided. They have picked someone. Interesting point about the geographic representation, I have seen that District 6 will play a big part in this election. So, who do you think benefits from this?
I think Smith gets the biggest boost from it. First, they are by far the most ignored district and in need of critical services like roads and better police and fire response times. There are a lot of old people in 6 and it seems they seem to skew Smith's direction also. They voted along the change route last time they voted for council too when they voted in Scott Somers.
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