Big time ballot returns

Holy cow, 24,860 people have already voted in Mesa's upcoming election. Once again, a big portion of the votes have come in from the East part of the city, with District 6 turning in 7,629 ballots and District 5 turning in 6,458. That is 56.6% of the votes coming in from East Mesa.

Griswold will probably win District 5 handily again this time, but remember that Smith ended up winning District 6 last time. So, I wonder how close it will be. Looking back at my post about the Primary Results, I tend to wonder if it truly will end up with District 5 agains all the rest of Mesa again.

I have done a little bit of projections based on the numbers from last time using the percentages found in the Arizona Republic article referencing the Primary numbers. I am basing these counts solely on the head to head from Smith and Griswold from last time around, not even including any boost that Walters may offer if her voters follow her to Smith:

Districts 1-4 (Smith 63.7%, Griswold 36.3%)
10,773 Early Votes
Smith - 6,862
Griswold - 3,911

District 5 (Griswold 61.7%, Smith 38.3%)
6,458 Early Votes
Griswold - 3,985
Smith - 2,473

District 6 (Smith 53.3%, Griswold 46.7%)
7,629 Early Votes
Smith - 4,066
Griswold - 3,563

TOTAL Early Voting Projection:
24,860 Early Votes
Smith - 13,401 (53.9%)
Griswold - 11,459 (46.1%)

I wonder if other people have done these same calculations and thats why we are now seeing more aggressive positions from Griswold. If, say, another 25,000 ballots are coming in, he would have to win the next set by a similar margin that I am predicting that Smith is currently winning. Thats an 8% point shift to stem the tide. Of course, this is all conjecture based on the primary results, so take them for what they are. However, what has really changed since then? It will be interesting to see how close I am when the ballots get counted later this month.

ETA: I have been asked by a reader to do the same rundown for the District 5 race. This, of course, is based on head to head between the two from the primary. Also, its based on the whole turn out and I know that Higgins did really well on the Early Ballots last time, so this may be a bit low. However, ask and ye shall receive:

District 5 (Higgins 59.8%, Austin 40.2%)
6,458 Early Votes
Higgins - 3,682
Austin - 2,776