Five Reasons Why Jeff Flake Won’t Win

Just a few days after Senator Jon Kyl announced that he wouldn’t seek another term, Mesa Congressman Jeff Flake has thrown his hat into the ring to replace Kyl in the United States Senate. It was pretty much expected. Many have said that he has eyed that seat for a long time. First out of the gate, there are some already calling Flake the front-runner for the seat. The problem is: he won’t win.

While he is lauded as a fiscal hawk, the 2010 elections showed us what was really important to the voters of Arizona and there is simply no way that Flake will be able to secure the Republican nomination. Here are five reasons why Jeff Flake won’t win:

1. Jeff Flake is soft on illegal immigration. Voters view illegal immigration as one of the top issues facing the State of Arizona. Not only did Flake vote for “comprehensive immigration reform,” but he also helped the fast food crowd bankroll his brother in law, Kevin Gibbons, in a direct assault on Russell Pearce. Flake’s brother’s is an immigration attorney and his business was called “Inmigracion Sin Barreras” (Immigration without barriers). Flake is going to be tagged with the amnesty label right off the bat. If Russell Pearce doesn’t run himself and destroy Flake, he’ll back someone who will.

2. Jeff Flake voted to repeal “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell.” While this appeals to his libertarian sensibilities, we don’t see this one going over too well with the morally conservative crowd. In fact, it was a "huge disappointment." While he probably loved to see his name in the headlines in Washington DC, this scored him no primary points at home.

3. Jeff Flake is a globetrotting Washington DC insider. Flake has visited more foreign countries on the taxpayers dime than he has attended district meetings and met with other elected officials here in Arizona. Israel, Cuba, Napa Valley, Palm Beach... Let’s face it Jeff Flake does not like hard work, he would rather be on a desert island doing survival school all alone than visiting with fellow Republicans in Arizona. That’s why Flake has more grassroots appeal on a desert island than he does in Arizona.

4. Jeff Flake is the reason that Arizona is a donor state. Flake’s crusade against earmarks all but guarantees that Arizona remains a donor state. Like sending money to Washington and only getting 80% back to Arizona? Then, Flake is your guy. He has been asked to support Arizona businesses and projects – and time and again he hides behind his anti-earmark stance. When was the last time you heard Jeff Flake talking about jobs, helping the State out in the Medicaid fight with the federal government of defending the State against attacks from the left on immigration? That’s right, Jeff Flake is a libertarian. That’s fine, but that’s not what we need in the US Senate. He has not done a single thing to bring a job to Arizona.

5. Jeff Flake is not battle tested. Since his first campaign, he has not had a tough race. His first race he won by default when all of the other candidates tussled with one another and “Mr. Think Tank” stayed out of the fray. Remember a few years ago when there was a lot of handwringing at the thought of Matt Salmon challenging Flake for his old seat? Or remember when Team Flake put the hit out on Russell Pearce for thinking about challenging him? This time, it is a completely different game. Flake’s record speaks for itself. You want to change Washington, do it from the outside, on your own dime. You can’t change Washington from the inside. Electing Jeff Flake to reform the Government would be like asking Hosni Mubarak to reform his own government – get real, that’s just not going to happen.

Only time will tell who else jumps in this race, but its likely that Jeff Flake will not survey the GOP primary. Perhaps he should run as a libertarian – his true party affiliation.