Now this would be an interesting election

So, Hurricane Bay is up for a council vote next week. The neighbors hate it, of course, but it would probably be good for Mesa to diversify a bit. So, lets assume the council passes it. Lets also assume the neighbors are mad, as they always seem to be in Mesa, and they refer it to the ballot. Would this wait until November to be decided? Would it be on the same ticket as the bonds with a potential secondary property tax attached? That could make for some interesting election issues.

I can already see it, "Vote Yes on 301 - because we like to party" and "Vote Yes on 302 - because we need someone to arrest these people." Or something like that.

More big fundraising returns

It looks like Claudia Walters won the latest round of fundraising, gathering over $24,000 is the last cycle. Scott Smith gathered another $18,000 in donations, and Rex Griswold gathered over $17,000. Here is the Republic's take as well. She also has the most on hand, so I predict that she will make a major push over the last few days. The real question is: can she push past the overarching sentiment that she is to blame for many oft he problems. Whether this fact is true or not, she has been taking the majority of the hits on this issue, while most people have given Griswold a pass.

ETA: I just found out that $10,000 of Walter's money came from a personal loan. Why didn't they make a bigger deal out of it? The loan issue was beaten to death when Smith and Griswold donated to their campaigns.

Seeing how much Yarbrough is being outspent by Kavanaugh, I stand by my previous statement about how Yarbrough should be banging on taxes now more than ever. However, I predict that his goose is fairly cooked. Based on the money, support and the momentum, here is how I predict these races are going to play out:

District 1 - Richins will win, but it might be closer than people thought
District 2 - Alex Finter will win handily
District 3 - Dennis Kavanaugh will win
District 5 - Phil Austin will win

This leaves only the Mayor's race. I am going to have to wait and see how these last few days play out. There might be a chance for someone to win outright depending on how turnout goes. However, each has their own base so a runoff might be inthe cards. The most interesting thing is that I am predicting that District 5 will be won outright, so that would mean that the Mayor's race is the only thing that has potential for a run off.

District 3 rundown

Here is the Tribune's take on Kavanaugh vs. Yarbrough in District 3. Clearly, Kavanaugh has the edge when it comes to experience and knowing people around that district. Those people down there love him.

However, I think Kavanaugh should be careful about using the secondary property tax to finance past bond debt. I have said it before, and I will say it again, I don't think that is a very popular idea. The bonds have been passed, and whether the property tax was implied or not, its not the right move. If Yarbrough were smart, he would be pounding away on that point every chance he gets. Talking about Kavanaugh's experience isn't helping his cause, he needs to light a fire these last few weeks if he wants to have a chance.

Endorsements

The Republic has an interesting rundown of who is endorsing whom in the upcoming Mesa elections. They must also be hurting for space or for clicks, because they had the article reviewing the endorsements as a separate link. I thought it was interesting that they didn't mention anything about the Police and Fire in the article - just on the rundown list. Judging by the fact that all of the signs I see seem to point to the police and fire endorsements, the candidates seem to think they are a pretty big deal.

What is most shocking to me is that Walters has won nearly every establishment endorsement, leaving Griswold with very few. I had thought that the people would split between the two, but really Walters mopped up in that category. So, who is backing Griswold? I looked to Griswold watch to see if he had anything to say about it, but alas, it looks like he has closed up shop. Great Oden's Raven!

Mesa Mayoral Candidates on the budget

Once again, the main focus of the article doesn't really seem to be in tune with the headline. This is supposed to be a discussion on budget solutions, and a large portion of the story is about the bond package. The problem is still there whether or not the bonds pass. I understand that things need to be built and the bond will help with that, but its not fixing the long term problem.

The most interesting part is the discussion of the failure of the primary property tax in 2006. I don't think Griswold's assertions are true about the knowledge of the voters when it comes to the tax. They knew what they were voting on, and the people had made it clear what was supposed to happen if the tax went down. I remember phrases like, "more cuts aren't the answer," to help describe the troubles that were ahead.

The problem is, nothing ever happened. Why didn't the City sell its land in Pinal County after the tax went down before the market bubble burst? Why didn't they cut the programs they said they were going to cut? Why didn't the look at these alternative revenue sources before the budget got so bad?

Here is what lies ahead:

-18-month budget deficit of up to $16 million
- 5 percent cut in city department budgets
- An expected reduction in state shared revenue
- Declining sales tax receipts

And they wonder why the council gets blamed for being part of the problem...

West Mesa Showdown

I have heard that its getting a bit heated in District 1 between Dave Richins and Matt Tolman. I think that its interesting that both are being called "community backed" because I guess I have a different version of what I call the community.

In my mind, Richins is the community guy with the neighborhoods, the fire fighters, the Republic behind him. Tolman appears to be more the party guy with Legislators in his corner and serving as the Republican Party chair. I am not placing more value on one or the other, I just think its interesting phrasing.

Overall, the article seems interesting because its supposed to be talking about redevelopment, but it never really gets to the meat of the issue. Its says, Richins is for X,Y, and Z, and Tolman is against X,Y, and Z. I guess its hard to get into detail when you only have so many words. Richins seems like more of the known commodity while Tolman still appears to be fairly unknown beyond the typical conservative lines.

I bet people from District 1 would like to know how he voted on Waveyard, Riverview, and the property tax.

Speed Humps

People who don't live on Hermosa Vista hate the temporary speed humps. The people who do live on the street like them. Now, the stats seem say that the speeds are getting down to the legal limit, and traffic has actually decreased in the area. Seems like a good thing to me.

However, Mesa has a survey that says people don't like it. Well, unless there is some other compelling reason to remove them, I'd say they are doing their job. Kids don't like vegetables, but that doesn't make the greens any less good for them.

Why does the city take a stand on stupid things like Roadside memorials, but turn their tail and run on other things like these speed humps? Now Councilman Jones said that other streets are taking the brunt of the traffic woes. If there are stats to prove that, I might change my mind. However, once again, either Mesa is doing something misguided or they have once again failed to explain themselves properly.

This makes me sad...

This banner is in a place of major prominence on the East Valley Tribune website. From this lame banner to the party girls that always seem to be on the cover of AZCentral, I am sad to say that the newspapers have become less about news and more about ads. Apparently, its more important to read the idol blog than to have consistent coverage on whats going on. If they want someone to gush all over the Arizona contestants, I bet there are some people who would recommend Jason Massad for the job. He seems to do a good job heaping on the praise.

Library Centennial

Happy 100th Birthday Mesa Library. You know, its been over twenty years since they put it that sculpture out front of the main library, and I still think its ugly.

Lowe's goes to the Council

Well, it looks like Lowe's near Country Club and Guadalupe is going to be finally voted on by the Council. This is Mesa afterall, so this probably won't be the last we hear about this. For the third year in a row, we'll probably have to have a citywide vote on a project that would likely pass very easily in another community. I have heard a lot of complaining from the neighbors, but I have yet to hear what they would want instead of Lowe's.